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We've seen rumors flying back and forth all day about the referendum, so we're not convinced that this one will hold.
Despite BBC reports earlier saying that Greek PM George Papandreou was on the verge of offering his resignation, he remains in office amid rumors over whether he will remain there.
He said that he would never put the euro up as a referendum question, and that he will speak to opposition leader Samaras to determine the next steps for the Greek government.
It appears clear that Papandreou's political power has all but disintegrated, and it looks unlikely that he and his government would survive a confidence vote Friday if he stays in office that long.
However, this doesn't mean that the EFSF deal is out of the woods yet. Now Dow Jones is reporting that a new government and end to any talks about referendum could be contingent on a new deal with other EU leaders.
UPDATE: Now even more reports are coming up saying that the referendum's out.
And don't miss this excerpt from a speech Papandreou reportedly gave to his cabinet (via FT):
“I will be glad even if we don’t go to a referendum, which was never a purpose in itself. I’m glad that all this discussion has at least brought a lot of people back to their senses.”
“I will talk to [opposition leader Antonis] Samaras so that we examine the next steps on the basis of a wider consensus."
UPDATE II: Papandreou is speaking to Parliament right now, publicly scrapping the referendum plan. Instead he's calling it a "positive shock."
What a ploy.
Accordingly, he says the October 26 agreement is the issue here, not the referendum. Instead of a referendum, he's reached an agreement with the opposition on the bailout. He's still resisting a call for his resignation, however. He says the confidence vote will go ahead as planned.
We're still skeptical that Papandreou will be able to survive the confidence vote, having lost the Parliamentary majority and pulled a stunning political somersault.
Fin Min Evangelos Venizelos followed him, saying that Greece needs the sixth tranche of troika aid by December 15. Negotiations on the next round of bailouts would follow that.
He added that the bailout deal must be approved by 180 out of 300 members in the Greek parliament, and that he wanted 100% private sector participation in a bond swap (via ForexLive).
There is little doubt that such participation would have to be coerced, and would therefore substantiate a credit event.